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AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY PREDICTIONS: MEDIA VS REALITY

The national house price could fall by 20%

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/national-house-prices-march-coronavirus-property-corelogic/12109434

House prices could fall by 10 to 15%

https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/market-trends/113339-house-prices-to-fall-10-15-in-2020-2021-nab-s-alan-oster.html

30% dive in house prices

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/house-prices-could-dive-30-per-cent-in-severe-downside-scenario-20200427-p54nll.html

32% downturn in house price crash

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/coronavirus-commonwealth-bank-house-prices-economy-unemployment/12241338

“The so-called experts” predictions have revealed that the facts are opposite to what they predicted initially. Mostly, mainstream media focus solely on current issues, not the potential opportunity behind it. During the lockdown, fear and ignorance of facts have been the main drivers of most media articles. The public news has become a valuable source of “truth” due to the public’s reactive response to the atmosphere that most mainstream media create.

Fact:

At the end of 2020, Corelogic reported a +3.73% change in its Sydney Home value index over the last year, with houses +4.95% and units +0.98% (year on year.)

https://propertyupdate.com.au/property-investment-sydney/

As the matter of fact, the majority of mainstream media’s interest is in earning income from their advertising spaces. By creating an atmosphere of “panic”, the media hope to gain public exposure and stir their opinion; with the core intention of selling their advertising spaces to corporations. That is one of the reasons why the fear and negative sentiments sell fairly well in the market. In other words, the bad news is good news for media corporations.

Furthermore, the “so-called experts” or journalists who write articles are generally employees of the institutions who either have a limited resource of knowledge on how the investment game works; or they are in conflict of interest with their media employer where they work. The conflict of interests mainly due to revealing the facts as it is with the risk of poor sales; or hiding the facts and publishing the “tailored” articles to create the atmosphere of “panic” in order to earn income. More often than not, the media authors have little to none of the track records of successful property investment portfolios. Successful property investors’ posts usually would not be available for free in the mainstream media. They will be available through books, seminars, coaching or training courses.

If truth be told, we need to realise that all free media are not really free. Media publishers capitalise the number of people who like to follow free media to become mass mobilisers.

The proper way to use the media to our advantage is to filter between facts and opinions. If the figures described are supported by facts (refer to Australian Bureau Statistics or any other reliable and legitimate sources) then the data is valid and can be trusted and consumed. Too many headlines are full of opinions which benefit the media marketing agency to be used as “clickbait”. The data presented is actually the most valuable component in the article. The people who are able to use the right and accurate information within the scope of the market are those who will benefit from the data presented to the public.

In conclusion, we need to continue improving our skills, knowledge and experience in order to know how to use the right information for the best financial decisions we are going to make. No one has crystal ball to see the future. Through fundamental analysis and technical analysis we could determine using the correct indicators to project the likelihood of property market in big picture.

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